The FutureHorizon Penn prediction is probably the most optimistic, bold. Just as it own finally said, in fact, to correctly predict is impossible, usually only 2-3 quarter of transparency. It is the point prediction capacity, and lead to rising ASP. The two have discussion room. Capacity really shortage? Global has more than 70 of the 300 mm production line, to promote the efficiency of light, great potential. In addition, the global electronic products market will continue to grow, is scheduled for purchasing power, and consumers' desire to buy, the price of the product is the key (and of course function). So to change has formed price decline is almost unlikely. Now electronic products dispersion is very big, again one, two kind of killer products is unlikely. So he thinks Penn's point of view is too optimistic, only supplies the reference.

According to the British market analysis company founder of FutureHorizon MalcolmPenn view, the next two years the global semiconductor market has more than 20% growth, may even have increased by 30% in May.

Penn emphasised the is based on global manufacturing capacity investment delay, cause the shortage of products, and may lead to future chips, ASP average selling price from falling and become a full member.

In 2010, four aspects is conducive to the development of semiconductor industry, such as the global economy improving, chip quantity demand rise, but the stock is normal, because a few years ago declining investment caused the current production capacity in short supply, and chip average selling price may improve ASP.

Penn conclusion think until September of 2010 before, the world will appear chip capacity shortage, and may even affect 2011 years. So we can expect the next two years semiconductor industry may growth boom.

Penn thought in the period 2005-2009 global chip ASP for negative 2.8%, the decrease of 2.8% per year, but it is expected that the future will change to 4% CAGR growth.

Penn insist on 2010 semiconductor market grew by 22%, and reiterated that appear again unless the global financial crisis that is similar to the. If predict optimistic, industry may have a 30% increase.

When it comes to the future it personal for semiconductor industry forecast, Penn provides the next 5 years semiconductor industry growth view. Then after 2010 increased by 22% in 2011, will increase by 28%, this is the period of peak, so to 2012 as chip capacity gradually open industrial growth will slow down, forecast that by 2012 in the second half of the industry began to normal cycle modified, so the growth of 18%, after a 3% rise on 2013 and 2014 and 12% of the growth, indicates the new round of cycle begins.

Obviously Penn also admitted to correctly predict the cycle of cycle is almost impossible.