The FutureHorizon Penn predictions may is the most optimistic, bold. Just as it from already finally said, that in fact to the correct prediction is not possible, usually only 2-3 quarter of transparency. It forecast basis points is capacity, and lead to ASP rise. The two have room for discussion. Capacity really shortage? Global have more than 70 300 mm production line, to promote the efficiency of light, great potential. In addition, the global electronic products market could continue to grow, is scheduled for purchasing power, and consumers buy the desire, the price of the product is the key (and of course function). So to reverse the decline in prices has formed almost is unlikely. Now electronic products a dispersion, again, a two killer product is unlikely. So he thinks Penn point is too optimistic, only supplies the reference.

According to the British market analysis, the founder of the company FutureHorizon MalcolmPenn opinion, the next two years global semiconductor market has more than 20% growth, may even have increased by 30% in May.

Penn emphasised the global manufacturing capacity is based on the investment delay, cause product shortages, which can lead to the average selling price of future chips, ASP will fall by continuing and become.

In the 2010 years has four aspects is very helpful in the semiconductor industry development, such as the global economy improving, chip demand number of rising, but inventory normal, because before a few years declining investment caused the current shortage of the production capacity of the production line, and chip average selling price may raise ASP.

Penn's conclusion think until September of 2010, before the global will appear chip capacity in the shortage, and may even affect 2011 years. So it can be expected in the next two years semiconductor industry can increase the effect.

Penn think in the 2005-2009 period of global chip ASP as negative 2.8%, down 2.8% a year, but it is expected that the future will change to CAGR growth of 4%.

Penn adhere to the semiconductor market growth of 22% in 2010, and reiterated that unless the global again is similar to the financial crisis that. If the forecasts optimistic, industry may have 30% increase.

When it comes to the future it personal for semiconductor industry forecast, Penn provides the next five years semiconductor industry growth point of view. And then after 2010 growth of 22% in 2011, will increase by 28%, this is the peak of the cycle, so by 2012 as the capacity of the open industrial growth will slow down gradually, forecast that by 2012 in the second half of the normal circulation industry began to fix, so the growth of 18% in 2013 and 3% growth after 2014 years and a 12% increase, signaling that the new round of cycle begins.

Obviously Penn also admitted to correctly predicted the circulation of the cycle is almost impossible.